The closest Senate, governor and House races of the 2026 midterm, with the candidates, a polling average and the ratings of independent forecasters, each linked to its source and dated.
How the list is chosen is at the bottom of the page.
Polls are not results; Open America does not call races.
This is not voting advice and not an endorsement.
Updated November 2, 2026.
How this list is made
Races are included when at least one of three nonpartisan raters (The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball) rated them Toss-up, Tilt or Lean as of Nov. 2, 2026, up to 12 Senate, 10 governor and 16 House races. Two Senate races that meet this test are left out: North Carolina, where the RealClearPolitics average gap is 11 points, and Louisiana, which the Crystal Ball moved to Leans Republican in its final ratings on Nov. 2. Races that at least two of the three raters call a Toss-up are listed first, and the rest follow by the gap between the top two candidates in the polling average (a tie goes to the race more raters call a Toss-up): RealClearPolitics averages for every listed Senate race and six of the governor races, 270toWin where RealClearPolitics had none (Vermont and Nebraska governor), and Decision Desk HQ's average on The Hill where neither had one (Nevada and Oregon governor). House districts have no published polling averages, so House races are ordered by how many raters call them a Toss-up and then by how many news outlets covered them between Oct. 19 and Nov. 2. Each rating is dated by the rater's latest change where a source we opened confirms it (otherwise by the date of the ratings page we read), and every average, poll and article links to the page it was read from on Nov. 2, 2026.
- Ratings come from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each chip shows the forecaster's own label and links to the page it was read from; the date of the rating is in the chip's tooltip.
- Polling averages come from RealClearPolitics, Decision Desk HQ and 270toWin; each card names the average it uses and its date. An average summarizes published polls; it is not a forecast and not a result.
- Candidates are the ones this page follows in each race, not everyone on the ballot; your state election office publishes the full ballot. They are listed alphabetically by last name. A candidate who has a member page on Open America is linked to it. A card shows official portraits only when every candidate on it has one; otherwise every candidate is shown by initials.
- News links on each card are the reporting it draws on, listed by the outlet's own headline, its name and the date.
- Election night: where Open America reads a state's own results feed, the card shows that state's unofficial count, refreshed about every minute while votes are being counted, and the polling numbers move to a line marked final polling average. Counts are unofficial until each state certifies its results. For other races the card says it has no count; follow its link to the state's own site. A count is not a projection, and nothing on this page calls a race.
- Updates: last updated November 2, 2026. The list is revised as the ratings and averages it cites change, and every number carries its own date.
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This is not voting advice and not an endorsement. Open America is non-partisan.
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